Pick up the debate

Bank of Communications chief economist Lianping to the new latitude and longitude, said the single from the excavator sales data to determine the economic growth has been warm up is probably insufficient evidence. Excavator sales increased mainly reflects the obvious expansion of infrastructure, because the excavator and roads, airports and other construction projects are closely related. "From this point we can see that this year's infrastructure investment growth is not low, at least unchanged from last year, maybe even slightly higher than last year." Lianping said.

However, combined with the recent data, from the current point of view, Lian Ping that China's economic L-shaped inflection point may have come out, economic growth will not continue down, but will be 6.5% to 7% growth range of horizontal fluctuations run.

Standard Chartered Bank (China) senior economists are more optimistic about the color, he pointed out that "began to pick up" argument is not accurate. "In fact, the real economy has been picking up a certain time." The color that, from the second half of last year, China's real economy to stabilize the trend of recovery has been continued.

"Investment began to pick up in September last year, private investment began to climb from last September, the manufacturing sector investment has rebounded, real estate investment is relatively stable, PPI from September last year began to change, and enterprises Profits from the second half of last year have also increased significantly ... ... "the color to the new latitude and longitude of the recent economic stabilization of the signs of recovery.

Reasons for picking up

Comprehensive PMI, price, credit, transportation, power generation of a variety of data, Lianping judgment that the economy in the first quarter of 2017 will not go down, and the first two years basically the first quarter compared to the previous quarter will be the next step , Such as from 2013 to 2014, and then from 2014 to 2015, the two quarters of the first quarter of the steps are more obvious, and 2015 to 2016 under the steps on the small. Lianping judge that the first quarter of 2017 is not necessarily the next step, there may be flat with the fourth quarter of 2016.

Lian Ping pointed out that this warmth is not a simple seasonal factor can explain, structural factors and cyclical factors also play a role in which they work together. The so-called cyclical factors, refers to the economy in a downward cycle to adjust, the total demand and the total supply in the process of continuous re-balance, and the Chinese economy itself is the growth potential. A series of recent policies, including structural adjustment, transformation and supply-side reforms, have led to improved quality and efficiency of the economy and improved structure, all of which have had a positive impact on the overall economy.

Lianping finally concluded that the result of this time adjustment is that the Chinese economy will be in a new level, or the new normal to form a new balance, and the realization of high-speed growth is not much suspense.

How does the Troika run this year?

Investment, consumption and exports are driving the three carriages of economic development. The three major components of investment are infrastructure investment, real estate investment and manufacturing investment. Lianping believes that infrastructure investment demand this year may be greater, manufacturing investment has stabilized, began to appear a small rebound, and showing a further recovery trend.

As for the real estate investment, Lian Ping that the real estate market last year, relatively large volume, credit is also relatively large, and last year a lot of credit has not really put on, in the first quarter of this year to the second quarter may have no small demand. The real estate market will continue to run the credit, but the growth rate will certainly be significantly down. As the credit is relatively lagging behind, so this year's volume although there is a clear drop, but will not shrink quickly.

"The overall consumption is relatively stable, in the tax cuts should also have obvious action.The government work report of the State Council also referred to 550 billion tax cuts, as well as raising the standard pension, increase the income of these pairs Promote consumption or will have a positive effect. "Lianping pointed out.

But in the long run, real estate and consumption will be more difficult this year. Consumer spending, such as car consumption in the last year by the tax policy concessions purchasing power has been advanced overdraft. "I think it 's probably not a matter of time to think about the new growth potential.

As for real estate investment, the color that the first-tier cities and quasi-first-tier cities affected by the policy control is relatively large, the pressure is relatively large, and third-tier cities to inventory is not necessarily completely removed, so real estate investment will not be the main force to stimulate this year's economic growth The

Export, Lianping that the current situation is also good, mainly due to the improvement of the international environment. Export growth has recently been a positive growth, the future uncertainty is mainly the United States and other major trading partners policy changes. But from the current point of view, Trump will not appear in the campaign said the large-scale trade sanctions policy, so this uncertainty is not as early as expected so strong, Lianping that this year's exports will be more than last year a little better.